The Silent Majority Made Their Voices Heard On Election Day


Even though we still don't know if the incumbent President Trump or Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has won the White House one thing that is clear is Trump outperformed many public polls by a huge margin.

This leaves the polling industry wondering how they could have been so wrong for a second time.

Veteran Republican pollster Frank Luntz said it was "unforgivable" that public opinion surveys underestimated Trump's support.

An average of the national surveys on the night before the election showed Biden leading by a whopping 7.2 points but on Wednesday morning after the election, President Trump was only behind by a slim 1.6 points in the national popular vote.

In the 2016 election, public polls showed Clinton in the lead over Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all states that Trump had won over. Trump also blew public surveys out of the water in Ohio and Iowa.

Fast forward to 2020 and President Trump has once again put public pollsters to shame.

Real Clear Politics predicted the former vice president would hold a .9 edge over Trump in Florida but at last check, his margin of victory stands at 3.4 points.

An average of the public opinion surveys showed a 6.7 lead for Biden on the eve of Election Day but we now know that he came out with just a fraction of a point above Trump.

The president won battleground Ohio by 8 points which is 7 points more than the final public poll results. The same thing happened in Iowa with Trump projected to hold a 2-point advantage over Biden but ended up with 8 points on Tuesday.

So why do public polls continue to underestimate Trump's support?

Luntz explained that Trump voters are more likely to refuse to be interviewed so "measuring the breadth of support for Donald Trump is tricky."

"But to get it wrong twice in a row by huge margins is unforgivable," he added.

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