Video Appears To Show CCP Threatening Japan With Nuclear Aggression

Japan has been threatened with a nuclear strike in a video released by Chinese media. From a nuclear power with a long-standing “no first use” policy, this is a bold threat to an otherwise nuclear-free state. As a result, the minimum deterrence approach is clearly abandoned.

“When we liberate Taiwan if Japan dares to intervene by force, even if it only deploys one soldier, one plane, and one ship, we will not only return reciprocal fire but also start a full-scale war against Japan,” the video states. “We will use nuclear bombs first.”

There’s no way to deny that these threats came from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), given the overwhelming amount of power they possess. The CCP channel reposted the video, making it likely that the video was intended as a coercive measure, according to media reports. A nuclear arsenal could be used as part of Hybrid Warfare if nuclear weapons are threatened in order to achieve a strategic foreign policy goal such as the invasion or “liberation” of a sovereign state. A minimum deterrence strategy that aims to prevent military aggression does not fit with this use of nuclear coercion. Minimum deterrence states will generally have just enough deliverable and survivable nuclear weapons to guarantee a successful retaliatory strike.

It’s defined as “a continuation of foreign policy utilizing unconventional hard power and/or subversive instruments in order to achieve strategic goals.” China’s Hybrid Warfare campaign against Taiwan has issued nuclear threats against Japan as a deterrent against allied intervention in the region. Taiwan’s air defense identification zone has been violated repeatedly by fighters and bombers of the United States. Taiwan has been the target of numerous cyberattacks by China. Xi Jinping has promised to “reunify” Taiwan with China and “slam down” any formal independence attempts. By weakening the resistance and allies of Taiwan, the CCP hopes to achieve its goal of annexing the island more quickly.

To paraphrase Sun Tzu, “the supreme art of war consists in subduing the enemy without fighting.” It is the CCP’s goal to show Taiwan and its allies that Taiwan’s “reunification” is a done deal and that it will use any means, including nuclear weapons, to achieve it. Following Sun Tzu’s “Supreme Art of War,” China’s ultimate goals with this strategy are to convince Taiwan’s population of the futility of resisting and to convince Taiwan’s allies that protecting Taiwan is not worth the cost.

Intent alone is not enough to make China’s nuclear threat dangerous. Japan is within striking distance of China’s DF-21 medium-range ballistic missiles and its DF26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles, both of which are nuclear weapons. Because of the Chinese decision to deploy these missiles against Japan, China’s intercontinental ballistic missile arsenal will remain in reserve should the United States strike its ally in response to the attack. China is aware that the U.S., Japan, and its allies must make these calculations in order to defend Taiwan. In light of the CCP’s use of nuclear coercion as a component of hybrid warfare and its departure from a minimal deterrence strategy, what can be done?

Below is the Chinese propaganda:

The first step should be to ignore China’s nuclear policy of “no first use.” As such, it must be recognized as a delusion. Nuclear weapons are being modernized in China, and they are being used to exert pressure. No-first-use policy, which China is said to have adopted, allows nuclear weapons to be used in retaliation for nuclear attacks. The United States and its allies must disregard China’s ‘no first use’ claims in order to clearly establish strategies to counter nuclear coercion and deter possible Chinese nuclear weapons use by the Chinese government.