Scientists Already Know What Viruses Will Cause The Next Pandemic

The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is just the latest pathogen to “spillover” from an animal source to humans. The “spillover” caused a worldwide pandemic from which we are still feeling the effects. Whether it was man-made in a lab or spilled over by humans eating animals in the markets of China, thousands of people still are pronounced dead from this virus every single day.

There are hundreds of thousands of other viruses lurking in the animal kingdom that could pose a similar threat with just one mutated strain of the virus. A new online tool has been developed that ranks these known viruses by their potential to “spillover” from animals to people. And many of those viruses could be even deadlier than Covid-19.

SpillOver, a new online tool, creates a “blacklist” of animal viruses that have been recently discovered that pose the greatest threat to the human race.

“SARS-CoV-2 is just one example of many thousands of viruses out there that have the potential to spill over from animals to humans,” Zoë Grange, who led the development of SpillOver, said in a statement. “We need to not only identify but also prioritize, viral threats with the greatest spillover risk before another devastating pandemic happens.”

Researchers hope their creation can be used to prioritize viruses for further study in the hopes of developing vaccines before a disease spills over.

There have been an estimated 250 viruses that have already spilled from animals to people with a staggering half million-plus viruses that have spillover potential.

The top 12 viruses on the list were known zoonotic pathogens, with the Lassa virus ranking first, SARS-CoV-2 second and the Ebola virus third. (The main animal host for the Lassa virus is rats and the main host for the Ebola virus is believed to be bats. The main animal hosts for SARS-CoV-2 are unknown, but the virus has been found to infect minks, lions and tigers.)

“This tool is intended to start a global conversation that will allow us to go far beyond how we thought about ranking viruses in the past and allow real-time scientific collaboration to identify new threats early,” a professor at the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine said in the statement. “SpillOver can help advance our understanding of viral health threats and enable us to act to reduce the risk of spillover before pandemics can catch fire.”